What origin did you use?

The data is online; integrating it over that range doesn’t yield a secular increase anywhere near that seen in the global temperature rise over that time. By far, any long term trend in the integral over that range is completely dominated by the ups and downs in the 40s and 50s.

But I will meet you partway on this: while the increase in CO2 explains the secular rise in temperature (the main feature of the temperature profile over the last century), it doesn’t explain the smaller features which do concur nicely with PDO variations, so its clearly involved in modulating the temperature in addition to the CO2. Its just not playing a major role.

But if your standard of science is “not disproved yet”, then I have millions of claims that meet that standard.

Thats always the case in science. Thats why we have things like Occam’s Razor, among other princiciples, to cut them out.

Temperature is related to the integral of the PDO. The zero of the index is arbitrary – it’s just chosen to centre the recent data. The PDO (hypothetically) controls how much extra heat enters the ocean surface layer (e.g. PDO might affect cloudiness, which would affect the Earth’s albedo and how much energy it receives from the sun) and heat is cumulative. PDO was more positive, meaning heat was accumulating in the system, from 1920 to 1945, and from 1975 to 2000. The PDO being negative reduces the heat input to close to zero, and the temperature stays constant.

If you require every wiggle to match, then I will observe – as many have before – that temperature anomaly did not rise between 1940 and 1980, while CO2 did. “There, falsified that for you.”

The PDO idea is a hypothesis. The wiggle match is also obvious “correlation implying causation” and not a proof of anything. (Much like the “CO2 matches temperature rise” claim.) But if your standard of science is “not disproved yet”, then I have millions of claims that meet that standard. You can’t say that just because CO2 can be made to fit temperature rise for some particular choice of the unknown parameters, that it therefore “explains” it. It’s a different question.

Incidentally, given that I just said that CO2 contributes positively to the temperature, I hadn’t disagreed with AGW – for one particular interpretation of the term. In this particular case, AGW survives anyway; so why argue?

I have been writing about global warming since 1997 well before Al Gore came along.

I have found that most people do not know the real facts and deniers of global warming are using the carbon tax issue as the means to argue man has NOT caused the premature warming of the planet.

My column, Global Warming – Is It Too Late?
http://www.dldewey.com/mar06.htm – provides much data.

Here is a time laspe video which shows how much of the Arctic has melted from 1980 through August 2010. If this does not convince people that MAN is the primary cause of the premature warming of our planet…. I don’t what will.

http://www.youtube.com/v/JMQ21p93JZc

Also this…

“Temp Leads Carbon” Crock”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8nrvrkVBt24

A recent report published this week by scientists observing SUN activity have found that the sun has been in a period of “inactivity”, less warmth for the last several years. This is important to know because if the sun had been in its’ normal heat dispersion, temperatures which are already above normal worldwide would be much greater.

Here is additional data:

Analysis of ice core samples done by totally independent researchers from the National Geographic Society have isolated man made carbon gasses in the ice at ever increasing levels since the 1900′s and especially since 1980.

TIMELINEOF MAN MADE GASES:

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/warnings/stories/icecore.html

Oceans are dying, worst than expected say experts:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-13796479

The reason why politicians have basically sat on their behinds and not passed the correct laws because they have been in the pockets of the corporations that have been helping man cause global warming. Until people all over the world truly grasp what is happenning to our planet caused by man, and then start to unite and stand up to the politicians to pass the correct laws, passing tarriffs on imported goods so that companies will be forced to bring the manufacturing back to the U.S. and create jobs, until the government and yes in this case we need government intervention, force the auto maunfacturers to TRULY build fuel efficient and no polluting CO2 emission cars,( they have had the technology for years – they have simple been partners with the oil companies since every major auto maker owns OIL stock )- when Americans STOP buying the junk made overseas at Wally World, Kmart and Target and start buying American made, yes it may cost more, however, everytime ten American buys crap made in China or where ever, it has cost ONE American his manufacturing job. China has become the world’s worst polluter now. This has been proven…we have already lost over 5 million manufacturing jobs in this country during the last year of Clinton and during the 8 years of Bush. Until Americans truly start to see what has really occured while they slept, and then start to accept what they MUST change in their behavior and start standing up to politicians regardless of party to do the RIGHT THING, things are only going to get worse, they already have with what is occuring worldwide with floods, droughts etc. The handwriting is on the wall – it does not take a genius to figure it out.

Americans MUST take off the blinders and start seeing the truth of their actions, accept they must change and then do something about it instead of simply complaining about everything, but mainly they just might have to change their lifestyles, which many people are too selfish to do.

YES, man MUST change and immediately to reverse what man has done to planet earth, if mankind does not, we WILL destroy ourselves. That is the truth and people must start to accept that now!

In addition, I am not too happy with President Obama. He has not come forward to the American people or the world and tell it like it is concerning global warming. He has fallen prey to corporate influence as other Presidents have concerning ignoring the facts and President Bush was the worst. It is interesting in a latest poll that 67% of Republicans do not believe man has caused global warming. I find this interesting because it has been Republicans that have fought EPA regulations for years, again backing the corporations, and folks its all about GREED !

Does mankind want to go down at the generations that destroyed our planet.

Drop me an email Chris !

People – we only have one planet to live on – we must stop destroying her !

OK, it’s “not yet falsified” that the 20th century warming was due to the warm phase of the PDO, that CO2 contributed less than the noise,

If one looks, one can discern features of the PDO signal superimposed on the steady temperature climb of the last century, but it certainly doesn’t explain that climb – the temperatures near 2010, during which time the PDO index oscillated close to zero, are far higher than the mini-peak around 1945 or so, when the PDO was quite high.

There, falsified that for you.

f is temperature anomaly, x is CO2, y is everything else.

You’re leaving out the most important parameter, time. f(t) is more informative for comparisons and potential tests. f(t) is measured, so is x(t), and they have similar profiles (unlike your PDO).

Don’t dismiss “not yet falsified”; Its important in the context of other proposed hypotheses which have been falsified. Many hypothesis have been tried, many have failed. AGW survives.

f is temperature anomaly, x is CO2, y is everything else.

OK, it’s “not yet falsified” that the 20th century warming was due to the warm phase of the PDO, that CO2 contributed less than the noise, and we have nothing to worry about. Isn’t that good news?

Will global warming alarmists ever wake up to this.

North-western USA temperatures have been low this year with massive snowfalls etc. These lower temperatures and warmer air form the Gulf of Mexico generate increased differentials and thus give rise to the more extreme weather / tornado events that we have seen recently.

As Global Cooling proceeds the differential – Poles to the Equator grows and one can expect more weather extremes not less.

A warmer climate is likely to be more BENIGN but a colder climate is TRULY DEADLY.

From http://judithcurry.com/2011/05/26/the-futility-of-carbon-reduction/#more-3330 Brian H | June 1, 2011 at 6:22 am |
At a rough guess, the odds of warming being benign are about 80%, and of cooling being benign about 0.01%. The odds of warming occurring are about 10%, and of cooling occurring about 60%. The ratio of the riskiness is thus [(1-.8)(.1)]/[(.6)(1-.9999)] = .02/.00006 = 333. So it makes 333X more sense to prepare for cooling disaster than for warming.

Also, don’t confuse mathematics, a discipline of proofs, with science, where things are rarely, if ever, proven. “Not yet falsified” is about as close as it gets in the real world.

“It’s like giving a machine gun to an idiot child.” – Paul Ehrlich (mentor of John Cook of the SkepticalScience blog, author of “Climate Change Denial”)
“Clean-burning, non-polluting, hydrogen-using bulldozers still could knock down trees or build housing developments on farmland.” – Paul Ciotti (LA Times)
“It gives some people the false hope that there are no limits to growth and no environmental price to be paid by having unlimited sources of energy.” – Jeremy Rifkin (NY Times)
“Many people assume that cheaper, more abundant energy will mean that mankind is better off, but there is no evidence for that.” – Laura Nader (sister of Ralph)

CLIMATEGATE 101: “For your eyes only: Don’t leave stuff lying around on ftp sites – you never know who is trawling them. The two MMs have been after the CRU station data for years. If they ever hear there is a Freedom of Information Act now in the UK, I think I’ll delete the file rather than send to anyone….Tom Wigley has sent me a worried email when he heard about it – thought people could ask him for his model code. He has retired officially from UEA so he can hide behind that.” – Phil “Hide The Decline” Jones to Michael “Hockey Stick” Mann

Here I present The Quick Glance Guide to Global Warming:
Denial: http://bit.ly/m6xySt
Oceans: http://oi53.tinypic.com/2i6os4y.jpg
Thermometers: http://oi52.tinypic.com/2agnous.jpg
Earth: http://oi56.tinypic.com/2reh021.jpg
Ice: http://oi56.tinypic.com/30a99tx.jpg
Authority: http://oi52.tinypic.com/wlt4i8.jpg
Prophecy: http://oi52.tinypic.com/30bfktk.jpg
Psychopathy: http://oi52.tinypic.com/1zqu71i.jpg
Icon: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tmPzLzj-3XY
Thinker: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n92YenWfz0Y

-=NikFromNYC=- Ph.D. in Carbon Chemistry (Columbia/Harvard)