Earl is traveling northward, but not weakening. The National Hurricane Center now puts the storm’s strength at 125 knot maximum sustained winds–well into the Category 4 range. 135 knots is the cutoff for Category 5. Earl is not currently forecast to get any stronger, but a few forecasts ago it wasn’t expected to get up to 125 knots, either.
The storm will pass the Outer Banks late tonight and, fortunately, it seems very likely that its strongest parts will remain offshore. The next evening, Massachusetts may not fare as well–but Earl will surely be weaker by then. Here’s the latest forecast track:
Earl is a Category 4 storm again, and the National Hurricane Center has issued watches and warnings up and down the mid-Atlantic coast.
As Eric Berger explains, this doesn’t mean that Earl is currently forecast to actually make a direct landfall on the East Coast. It’s just that in light of the uncertainties, we can’t completely rule it out, and even without a direct landfall, a storm this strong could cause some damage.
Earl is big, powerful, and even capable of some further strengthening over very, very warm waters.
As for the D.C. area, it doesn’t look like we have anything serious to worry about yet.
Good news: Earl stopped strengthening and is apparently going through an eyewall replacement cycle. It remains a Category 4 storm, and may restrengthen again, but Category 5 may not be in the cards.
Bad news: The hurricane center pushed the forecast track a little to the west again. In fact, the center says that “A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY.” But we still don’t know at all whether Earl will actually strike land, brush it, or remain entirely out in the open ocean.
Clearly, Earl is going to keep us guessing.
…and Category 5 may not be out of the cards.
At right is the latest image of the storm, featuring the pinhole eye often seen when a hurricane is rapidly intensifying, as Earl has today.
Meanwhile, Earl now has a little sister, Fiona, who is following him across the Atlantic.
Earl has lashed Puerto Rico today with its rainbands, and that may be the treatment the U.S. coast also gets if Earl stays offshore.
Either way, we have to expect a very intense hurricane for the next few days. Eric Berger has more on the chances of Earl hitting the East Coast, and the dilemma the storm presents for emergency planners.
Do you evacuate parts of North Carolina? Earl isn’t certain to hit land at all; the odds for the moment seem against it. But it could certainly happen. And if you don’t evacuate, and Earl hits as a major hurricane….
We’ve really got to watch this one. Earl is currently exploding in intensity, and as Jeff Masters writes:
Ocean temperatures are a near-record 30°C, and very warm waters extend to great depth, resulting in a total ocean heat content highly favorable for rapid intensification. These nearly ideal conditions for intensification should bring Earl to Category 4 strength by Tuesday morning, and Category 5 is not out of the question. Earl should be able to maintain major hurricane status through Thursday, when it will make its closest approach to North Carolina. Sea surface temperatures are very warm, 29°C, along the U.S. East Coast, and wind shear is expected to remain low through Thursday. By Friday, when Earl will be making its closest approach to New England, wind shear will rise to a high 20 – 30 knots and ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will still probably be a Category 2 hurricane on Friday, when it could potentially make landfall in Massachusetts or Nova Scotia, Canada.
I’ll keep blogging the storm; check out Masters, Eric Berger, and the National Hurricane Center for more.
Not good news this morning, as the National Hurricane Center felt the need to shift the forecast track for Hurricane Earl to the west–e.g., closer to the U.S. east coast.
Earl is now a 95 knot Category 2 hurricane, and given how much it has strengthened in the past 24 hours, seems on course towards Category 3 or 4 today.
Here’s what the forecasters say:
GIVEN THE LARGE SHIFT IN THE MODELS…THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT…OR WEST…BUT STILL LIES ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.
THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO REMIND EVERYONE THAT NHC AVERAGE TRACK FORECAST ERRORS ARE 200 TO 300 MILES AT DAYS 4 AND 5. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY…IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE WHAT…IF ANY…PARTS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST MIGHT SEE DIRECT IMPACTS FROM EARL LATER THIS WEEK.
In other words–we don’t want to unreasonably scare you… (more…)
Our first really threatening storm of the peak of hurricane season, the Category 1 Earl (infrared at right), is intensifying near the Leeward Islands.
The current forecast expects this trend to continue and maybe go as high as Category 4 intensity.
The key issue here is precisely what path Earl follows. Beyond the Caribbean, there is a potential threat to the Carolinas and also New England, as you can see in the current 5 day forecast cone (below).
At this point, there’s no predicting this. Earl could be harmless to the U.S., or, it could be completely hair-raising, with vulnerabilities spread along the East Coast. Stand by…
Bad news: the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, although tardy to begin, is now in full swing. Hurricane Danielle reached Category 4 over the open Atlantic today and two more possible bogeys are following her closely.
Good news: A steering pattern seems in place, at least for the moment, that is recurving these storms out to sea, and keeping them away from the North American and Caribbean land masses. We’ll just see how long this lasts.
Best news of all: the oil spill is plugged and no hurricane ever went across the slick while the oil was still flowing. That’s not to say a hurricane couldn’t still cause a mess with all the oil in the water. But a worst case scenario has likely been averted (due to sheer luck, not due to anything BP did).
Eric Berger and Jeff Masters have much more technical analysis and commentary.
To hell with it: I’m not going to show any shame when it comes to plugging my Mom’s first book, so here it goes: Her first 5 star Amazon.com review, from top 1000 reviewer Elderbear:
Sally Cole paints pictures with her words. She draws the reader into vignettes, each one particular to a tiny piece of her experience, and yet microcosms that illumine the greater world. This story is a celebration of the tenacity of life. It tells a tragic story in a beautiful way, and in a way that affirms the continuity of life and the vastness of nature. Ms. Cole paints little pictures of the irony that is tiny, fragile human life amidst the indifferently beautiful forces of nature.
I suppose that most of all, this is a book of courage–not the courage of some manic first responder or a daring escape through tossing tides–but the courage to find personal meaning in an event the size of Katrina.
Click here to get your copy of Leaving New Orleans: An Unsettling Tale, my mother’s beautifully written first book….
The good news is that nobody expects it to strengthen much due to environmental conditions.
The bad news is that it is a tropical storm system in the Gulf of Mexico. Period.
That means we’ll have to watch this one closely, and now that storm season is picking up, let me recommend a few blogs to keep track of for hurricane stuff: Eric Berger’s SciGuy, and Jeff Masters’ Wunderblog.
They’re already following the storm and will have more soon, as will I.
