The Big Caveat on AI and Future Work

By Jeremy Hsu | November 30, 2017 7:06 pm
Amazon robots and human workers together in a warehouse. Credit: Amazon Robotics

Amazon robots and human workers together in a warehouse. Credit: Amazon Robotics

Artificial intelligence will likely both giveth and taketh away jobs for humans. A McKinsey Global Institute report estimates that automation could displace between 400 million and 800 million people worldwide by 2030, even as the report also suggests the benefits of automation could help create enough new jobs for displaced workers. But beyond the numbers, the report offers more useful lessons regardless of whether future work ultimately looks sunny or bleak.

One of the clearest lessons from the McKinsey Global Institute report is that countries would be wise to invest heavily in supporting and retraining workers who lose their jobs and need to change careers. This should be a no-brainer move, because such policies would benefit both workers and overall societies even if AI and robots somehow did not displace a single human worker. Yet the McKinsey report notes that “investments and policies to support the workforce have eroded” over the last few decades and pointed out that “corporate spending on training has declined in the United States.”

That lack of retraining support could lead to big trouble if AI and robots continue to reshape future work. Some of the most eye-popping numbers comes from the report pointing out that an estimated 75 million to 375 million workers who lose their original jobs may need to switch careers and retrain by 2030. Those estimates come from what the report describes as its midpoint automation adoption scenario (15 percent of jobs automated by 2030) and earliest automation adoption scenario (33 percent of jobs automated by 2030).

By comparison, the slowest scenario (5 percent of jobs automated by 2030) would supposedly lead to less than 10 million workers needing to change careers. But that’s the best case scenario. The report itself describes the retraining challenge for human workers in sobering terms:

The changes in net occupational growth or decline imply that a very large number of people may need to shift occupational categories and learn new skills in the years ahead. The shift could be on a scale not seen since the transition of the labor force out of agriculture in the early 1900s in the United States and Europe, and more recently in China. But unlike those earlier transitions, in which young people left farms and moved to cities for industrial jobs, the challenge, especially in advanced economies, will be to retrain midcareer workers. There are few precedents in which societies have successfully retrained such large numbers of people. Frictions in the labor markets—including cultural norms regarding gender stereotypes in work and geographic mismatches between workers and jobs—could also impede the transition.

Advanced economies such as the United States would likely be most heavily impacted by AI-driven automation. That means they would likely have much higher percentages of their workforces that require job retraining. Up to 33 percent of the U.S. workforce might require retraining for future work by 2030, and possibly close to half of all workers in Japan.

It could be a staggering challenge for even the wealthiest of societies. But the past does provide a few examples of the innovative thinking required to help reshape education and job training for future generations. The United States made a big change in its educational system during the workforce shift from agriculture to manufacturing:

During the transition out of agriculture, for example, the United States made a major investment in expanding secondary education, and for the first time required all students to attend. Called the High School Movement, this raised the rate of high school enrollment of 14- to 17-year-olds from 18 percent in 1910 to 73 percent in 1940, making the US workforce among the best-educated and most productive in the world, and enabling the growth of a vibrant manufacturing sector.

The U.S. education system may need yet another major overhaul to prepare students for future work alongside AI and robots. “Educational models have not fundamentally changed in 100 years; we still use systems designed for an industrial society to prepare students for a rapidly-changing knowledge economy,” the report says. “It is now critical to reverse these trends, with governments making workforce transitions and job creation a more urgent priority.”

It does not matter if you believe that AI and robots are overhyped technologies that will have no impact on the workforce, or if you’re a sunny AI optimist who believes automation will usher in a future utopia. Better support for job retraining and educational reforms could provide some of the best future-proofing for societies regardless of what happens.

CATEGORIZED UNDER: technology, top posts
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  • TLongmire

    If I was given every tool and material I needed I could create a better environment for myself than 99% of people of this time. That mentality will be the basis of individuals of the future to deserve the right to be.

  • lump1

    Maybe we should first look at all the programs we know of that successfully retrained mid-career workers for a different career. Oh wait…

  • OWilson

    Shepherds, Cowboys, Farm workers. Grave diggers, Hangmen, Sailors, Travelling Salesmen, Mailmen have all been impacted negatively by modern technology,

    But if you want to work, you can always find a job in the modern economy!

    It’s called human progress. Embrace it!

    “There’s nothing to fear, but fear itself!” – FDR

  • http://www.mazepath.com/uncleal/qz4.htm Uncle Al

    Social intent prides itself on destroying education while a surviving thin stream of the Gifted continuously improve civilization to exclude the willfully useless. Go live in the EU, monkeybone, or become a soldier (wherein “employee attrition” really is employee attrition).

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Lovesick Cyborg

Lovesick Cyborg examines how technology shapes our human experience of the world on both an emotional and physical level. I’ll focus on stories such as why audiences loved or hated Hollywood’s digital resurrection of fallen actors, how soldiers interact with battlefield robots and the capability of music fans to idolize virtual pop stars. Other stories might include the experience of using an advanced prosthetic limb, whether or not people trust driverless cars with their lives, and how virtual reality headsets or 3-D film technology can make some people physically ill.

About Jeremy Hsu

Jeremy Hsu is journalist who writes about science and technology for Scientific American, Popular Science, IEEE Spectrum and other publications. He received a master’s degree in journalism through the Science, Health and Environmental Reporting Program at NYU and currently lives in Brooklyn. His side interests include an ongoing fascination with the history of science and technology and military history.

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