Bad Science of the Havana Embassy “Sonic Attack”

By Neuroskeptic | April 7, 2018 7:12 am

In late 2016, staff at the US embassy in Havana, Cuba, began to report hearing unusual sounds. Over the coming months, some staff were struck down by hearing loss and concussion-like symptoms. The strange sounds were interpreted as the cause, perhaps even reflecting a sonic weapon of an unknown nature.

sonic_weapon

The story of the ‘Havana embassy attack‘ has been told in detail but, until recently, there were no scientific studies of the event or its aftermath.

That changed on February 15th, when leading medical journal JAMA published a paper entitled Neurological Manifestations Among US Government Personnel Reporting Directional Audible and Sensory Phenomena in Havana, Cuba. In this article, authors Randel L. Swanson and colleagues studied 21 individuals who had been in the embassy and had suspected exposure to the sonic anomaly.

Swanson et al. concluded that the patients showed a pattern of symptoms including “persistent cognitive, vestibular, and oculomotor dysfunction, as well as sleep impairment and headaches.” A neurological basis for the syndrome was suggested: “These individuals appeared to have sustained injury to widespread brain networks”, despite never having experienced head trauma. In 14 of the 21 victims, the symptoms were so disabling that they still had not returned to work.

Although the JAMA paper did not attempt to establish the cause of the symptoms seen in the embassy workers, it did not exclude the possibility that some kind of ‘sonic weapon’ was involved.

But now, the JAMA study has come under criticism in a paper published yesterday in the journal Cortex: Alleged “sonic attack” supported by poor neuropsychology, by authors Sergio Della Sala and Roberto Cubelli. (Della Sala is chief Editor of Cortex.)

The thrust of the criticism is a very simple one: most of the ‘cognitive dysfunction’ reported in the JAMA study wasn’t actually dysfunction. Della Sala and Cubelli argue that Swanson et al. relied on a very broad definition of ‘impairment’ that would generate many false positives:

In eTable 2, the authors report as ‘impaired’ any performance below the 40th percentile. They write “Bold highlighting denotes abnormality or <40th percentile” and quote three text manuals, none of which authorizes the use of such high threshold as cut-off.

The use of an arbitrarily high threshold gives rise to numerous false positives. Assessing any group of normal, healthy people with a random battery of tests using such a high threshold would result in several of them performing below the chosen cut-off score in one or another test.

Here’s that eTable 2 from the JAMA paper, which shows cognitive test scores for the 6 patients in whom full neuropsychological testing was performed:

swanson_havana

There are 222 cognitive test scores reported here by my count, of which 62 are below the 40th centile. What this means is that 60% of normal healthy adults would score above the 40th centile, while 40% would score below. As Della Sala and Cubelli point out, this is a very liberal threshold of abnormality.

In fact, there is actually less abnormality here than would be expected in healthy people: 62 scores are below 40%, whereas we would expect to see 40% of 222 which is 89 – although, as the scores are not independent, we shouldn’t read too much into this.

Della Sala and Cubelli go on to point out that if Swanson et al. had used the more conventional 5th centile cut-off for abnormality, 3 of the 6 patients would have scored normally on all tests. The other 3 would have showed impairment on a few tests, but with no apparent logical pattern: “the lack of coherence makes it impossible to advance any neuropsychological diagnostic interpretation.”

The authors conclude that

There is no evidence that the people assessed present with any cognitive deficit (to be linked or not with their stay in Cuba). Subjective cognitive symptoms cannot be supported by the reported data. There is no ‘new syndrome’ to contemplate. Hence, the search for its cause is moot…

The condition suffered by the US diplomats in Cuba has been labelled “mysterious” (Rubin, 2018). The real mystery though is how such a poor neuropsychogical report could have passed the scrutiny of expert reviewers in a first class outlet.

In fairness to Swanson et al., we should note that the cognitive test score analysis, criticized by Della Sala and Cubelli, is only one part of the JAMA paper, albeit an important part. The JAMA article also describes self-reported cognitive, mood, and other symptoms, along with ‘objective’ abnormalities in many patients on tests of vision, hearing, and balance and vestibular function.

However, we might note here that these tests are not described as being performed by blinded testers – in other words, the testers may have been predisposed to expect to find abnormalities. Blinded testing, with a control group of individuals who were not exposed to the Havana noise, would have provided much stronger evidence, I think. It’s also notable that neuroimaging revealed no abnormality in the majority of cases, and unspecific, possible abnormality (multiple T2-bright white matter foci) in 3 patients.

Overall, I agree with Della Sala and Cubelli that the JAMA paper is pretty weak. Clearly, something has happened to make these 21 people experience so many unpleasant symptoms, but at present I don’t think we can rule out the possibility that the cause is psychological in nature.

CATEGORIZED UNDER: papers, politics, select, selfreport, Top Posts
ADVERTISEMENT
  • tim bucky

    something did happen to these people. what is this with the no answer. will someone please field a guess.

    • jrkrideau

      Group (mass) hysteria sounds likely as Neuoskepic points out in the link at the bottom of the page. The reported symptoms were not even consistent from what I read in the media.

    • dannyR

      Guesses are all we can manage from the data at hand. Based on the subjective descriptions and the sudden onset of the same, and that Canadian staff were similarly afflicted, I don’t think the word ‘attack’ would occupy a peripheral station among the hypotheses.

    • Trut Tella

      Maybe the NSA outpost in the basement is getting so large that the structure of the embassy is having a hard time holding up?

    • okiejoe

      So, if you don’t know anything, make something up.

  • Leonid Schneider

    What if those diplomats took some very bad drugs bought on the streets of Havanna, for recreational purpose? And when faced a sack for that deed, they thought of an excuse the CIA, State Office and even JAMA would believe?

    • dannyR

      Canadian embassy personnel were also affected.

      • Leonid Schneider

        right, so who bought those drugs, and in whose embassy was the party?

  • dannyR

    Science and Engineering Ethics
    December 2017, Volume 23, Issue 6, pp 1807–1810
    Are Pseudonyms Ethical in (Science) Publishing? Neuroskeptic as a Case Study

    Author: Jaime A. Teixeira da Silva

  • http://www.mazepath.com/uncleal/EquivPrinFail.pdf Uncle Al

    Cuban Embassy
    2630 16th St NW
    Washington, DC 20009

    www(.)youtube(.)com/watch?v=iJFGAX77zw4
    … Microwave them 24/7.

  • Pingback: Sunday assorted links - Marginal REVOLUTION()

  • Cjones1

    Could be Zombie (Puffer fish neurotoxin) powder sprinkled about, but considering the reports of strange noises, I wonder if the nearby Cuban residents are victims suffering from neurological damage too!

  • jorod

    Yeah, Havana is a peaceful place; socialist paradise.

  • http://www.stationarywaves.com/ Ryan P. Long

    It’s mass hysteria. The physical symptoms are very real, but psychosomatic.

  • gwsmith

    The noise was probably dissonant feedback from the deteriorating 1950s covert surveillance system installed in the embassies.

  • timdb

    I read that it has been pretty well established that the interaction of multiple ultra-sonic devices within the embassy (motion detectors for example) were responsible for the sonic disturbances.

  • General Tso

    A ploy to get on disability?

  • Realnoid

    Ever get the feeling that the explanations for what happened to the diplomats in Cuba sound even weirder than the event itself? Mass hysteria? Hah! Bad drugs? Dumb. Lying? Probably not.

    Hate to say it but…I had similar experience via simultaneous multi-frequency sounds that disrupted everything but had no permanent effect that I know of. This was from 2002 – 2010. I tried investigating what was known about sonic technology. The officious looking well footnoted library book on the subject turned out to be a hoax in itself. None of this was ever ascribed to Govn’t, neighbors, space aliens, Russians, mind control or demons. Drugs were never a factor. I thought delusions or auditory hallucinations. Nope. I have no proof which makes it sound like every RW Alex Jones conspiracy troll jamming up comments sections. So if it wasn’t imagination what the hell was it? Unfortunately no Occams Razor logic or DSM default even comes close.

    • Schizrepino Lily

      sound like a very sophisticated LRAD . using face recognition system , once lock in by satellite tracking , it will be programme to attack u severely with laser, ads, microwave pulse, electromagnetic field, electric weapon, rf, etc. the LRAD and microwave pulse the most potent and extremely painful causing concussion, damaging eyesight, causing slur, memory loss, tongue biting, unable to spell simple words etc. damaging eyesight, causing shortsightedness, menorrghia among the ladies, excessive bleeding, imagine being put on the shaker 24/7 (vibroacoustic device – lrad) will drained u the blood may cause miscarriage, emf causing cancer, nausea, headache, abnormal behaviour , mental illnesses, stunted growth among the children, alzheimer etc

      • Realnoid

        Your username says more than your comment.

  • sciencereader

    In case you haven’t done so, I strongly recommend that you follow the link to the article in Cortex. It’s hard-hitting, and, in my opinion, convincing.

  • Jim Bo

    My guess: chemical, biological or radiological agents are actual cause. The strange audio was added as a subterfuge.

  • John Hall

    The problem with the often used “ mass hysteria” theme is that several tourists reported similar symptoms after visiting Cuba long before it came out about the Embassy Attacks. You are correct. Sonic weapons won’t produce the symptoms that are being reported but electromagnetic weapons, which have been researched for decades by most industrialized nations, will cause exactly the symptoms being reported.

  • Realnoid

    Not only do officious explanations sound worse than the original effects described, so do most of the comments. Mass hysteria? Radiation? (Borrowed from events in England) Why bother? Comment sections go from one extreme to the other. Either Alex Jones ridiculous or “mass hysteria” overcompensation.

  • Marlene J Looney

    Science should drive and take priority over politics. But everything with Cuba and the US is always about politics. The politics of hate that run more than a century when Cuba gained its independence with no help from the US only for the US to occupy the island under the Platt Amendment and installation of puppet presidents until 1959 when Castro thumbed his nose up to the mighty US of A and did so until his last breadth. I am Cuban, I am an American regardless of whether born here in US or not (recall there is Central and South America as well plus Caribbean and Canada and Mexico!!). Cuba has made great strides and has also made great blunders. The every day Cuban pays the price. I know this first hand when I travel yearly to visit family and support dog rescue efforts. It is a shame that Cuban American exiles in Miami continue to serve out fear and hatred and that the current US administration falls to these least common denominators as more and more Cubans chose to rekindle family ties. I was trained as a bench scientist (undergraduate/graduate) and worked in pharma for almost three decades. To review the article penned by Univ of Penn was disappointing but to see that Della Sala, et al gave a significantly robust scientific rebuttal is encouraging. Let us open up channels of communication in the true spirit of gaining answers and not making up answers. The latter leads us nowhere.

  • Theo

    Cuba, China. I guess the next “sonic attack” will be in Moscow. If it is, as I suspect, a case of hysterical contagion, it is spreading slower that one would expect. The 2012 case in Sri Lanka took just 5 days to spread to 15 schools. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jun/07/sonic-attack-fears-as-more-us-diplomats-fall-ill-in-china

  • Nunya47

    This mystery just screams for logical analysis, flowcharting, and forensic, scientific methodology! First of all, “mass hysteria” cannot cause objectively, clinically, medically verifiable traumatic brain injury and hearing loss. DUH.

    Since we can’t call Dr House, it’s on investigators, especially medical investigators, to start asking the right questions, and for EVERYONE to let go of the idea of proving some kind of “attack.” Investigation is NOT about coming up with a theory and making the evidence “fit” the theory. DUH. Investigation is about following real, verifiable evidence to a logical conclusion, and forming a theory out of that if necessary.

    So the first question for the medical investigators to ask is simply this- what causes traumatic brain injury/concussion BESIDES a blow to the head? CLEARLY most of the people effected by this have all the classic signs of concussion, yet they did not have a blow to the head. Next is the hearing loss and other auditory evidence – CLEARLY most of the people effected by this have all the classic signs of inner ear problems/injury.

    The first question should be, simply, what, besides a blow to the head can cause these things, what are ALL the known causes of these things? (NOT how an “attack” could cause these things!) Maybe it was an attack, of course that’s possible, BUT MAYBE IT WASN’T. The point is, no one actually knows. We will never find out if people keep blundering through the investigation.

  • Pingback: Los científicos dicen que la idea de un ataque de microondas contra diplomáticos estadounidenses no tiene sentido – Buzz Life()

  • Pingback: Scientists Say The Idea Of A Microwave Attack Against US Diplomats Makes No Sense – News Online Free()

  • Pingback: Scientists Say The Idea Of A Microwave Attack Against US Diplomats Makes No Sense | wakajobs - Internet Wonders()

  • Pingback: Scientists Say The Idea Of A Microwave Attack Against US Diplomats Makes No Sense - breaking news headlines news portal website()

  • Pingback: Scientists Say The Idea Of A Microwave Attack Against US Diplomats Makes No Sense | TrendRockr()

  • Pingback: Scientists Say The Idea Of A Microwave Attack Against US Diplomats Makes No Sense | TrendRockr()

  • Pingback: Los científicos dicen que la idea de un ataque de microondas contra diplomáticos estadounidenses no tiene sentido – Buzz Life()

  • Pingback: Did A Microwave Weapon Make US Diplomats Sick? It’s Actually, Actually Unlikely. - Trending Hits()

  • Pingback: Cuba's "Sonic Attack" on the U.S. Embassy Could Have Been Merely Sounds Emitted By a Listening Device -()

  • Pingback: EE.UU: ¿Llegarán a irse a las manos los científicos de la Universidad de Pensilvania? | PostCuba()

  • Pingback: EE.UU: ¿Llegarán a irse a las manos los científicos de la Universidad de Pensilvania? – El joven cubano()

  • https://www.facebook.com/FreemasonMafia/ KathleenMaynard56

    There is nothing “mysterious” about the attacks on the U.S. diplomats in Cuba. The U.S. government has been forced to characterize the attacks as “mysterious” because they don’t want to admit that Directed Energy Weapons (DEWs), developed by contractors for the U.S. military such as Lockheed and Raytheon, are now in the hands of organized crime, corrupt law enforcement, and “black ops” corporate security firms of the sort used by Harvey Weinstein.

    The U.S. government also doesn’t want to admit they are well aware (complicit?) with the harassment protocol used against the U.S. diplomats in Cuba, because this is the very same harassment protocol used against corporate whistle-blowers such as me in the USA. Kathleen Maynard, RN, OTR/L, ACM-RN, Gainesville Florida.

  • Pingback: La scienza al servizio della politica? Il caso degli “attacchi acustici” ai diplomatici USA()

NEW ON DISCOVER
OPEN
CITIZEN SCIENCE
ADVERTISEMENT

Neuroskeptic

No brain. No gain.

About Neuroskeptic

Neuroskeptic is a British neuroscientist who takes a skeptical look at his own field, and beyond. His blog offers a look at the latest developments in neuroscience, psychiatry and psychology through a critical lens.

ADVERTISEMENT

See More

@Neuro_Skeptic on Twitter

ADVERTISEMENT

Discover's Newsletter

Sign up to get the latest science news delivered weekly right to your inbox!

Collapse bottom bar
+