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	<title>Comments on: To predict what will make you happy, ask a stranger rather than guessing yourself</title>
	<atom:link href="http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/notrocketscience/2009/03/19/to-predict-what-will-make-you-happy-ask-a-stranger-rather-than-guessing-yourself/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/notrocketscience/2009/03/19/to-predict-what-will-make-you-happy-ask-a-stranger-rather-than-guessing-yourself/</link>
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		<title>By: Phil Goetz</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/notrocketscience/2009/03/19/to-predict-what-will-make-you-happy-ask-a-stranger-rather-than-guessing-yourself/#comment-2886</link>
		<dc:creator>Phil Goetz</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 25 Mar 2009 23:57:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/notrocketscience/2009/03/19/to-predict-what-will-make-you-happy-ask-a-stranger-rather-than-guessing-yourself/#comment-2886</guid>
		<description>Sorry, I hadn&#039;t used DOIs before, and did not perceive it as a reference.
&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;blockquote&gt;The result is only interesting if the subjects were given the information first, and then asked whether they could predict their response better from that information than from someone else&#039;s experience.&lt;/blockquote&gt;
Actually they were asked to predict which type of information would allow them to make the most accurate response *after* the date.&lt;/blockquote&gt;
And, equally importantly, after being shown an example of the &quot;simulationist&quot; information.  To quote the paper:&lt;blockquote&gt;Next, the second woman was escorted to the
dating room, had a speed date, and then reported
how much she enjoyed it (on the enjoyment
scale). This report is hereinafter referred to as her
affective report. The second woman also reported
whether she believed that simulation information
or surrogation information would have allowed
her to make the more accurate prediction
about the speed date she had and about a speed
date that she might have in the future.&lt;/blockquote&gt;
That&#039;s the crucial piece of information I wanted.
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Sorry, I hadn&#8217;t used DOIs before, and did not perceive it as a reference.</p>
<blockquote><blockquote>The result is only interesting if the subjects were given the information first, and then asked whether they could predict their response better from that information than from someone else&#8217;s experience.</p></blockquote>
<p>Actually they were asked to predict which type of information would allow them to make the most accurate response *after* the date.</p></blockquote>
<p>And, equally importantly, after being shown an example of the &#8220;simulationist&#8221; information.  To quote the paper:<br />
<blockquote>Next, the second woman was escorted to the<br />
dating room, had a speed date, and then reported<br />
how much she enjoyed it (on the enjoyment<br />
scale). This report is hereinafter referred to as her<br />
affective report. The second woman also reported<br />
whether she believed that simulation information<br />
or surrogation information would have allowed<br />
her to make the more accurate prediction<br />
about the speed date she had and about a speed<br />
date that she might have in the future.</p></blockquote>
<p>That&#8217;s the crucial piece of information I wanted.</p>
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		<title>By: Ed Yong</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/notrocketscience/2009/03/19/to-predict-what-will-make-you-happy-ask-a-stranger-rather-than-guessing-yourself/#comment-2885</link>
		<dc:creator>Ed Yong</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 25 Mar 2009 20:34:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/notrocketscience/2009/03/19/to-predict-what-will-make-you-happy-ask-a-stranger-rather-than-guessing-yourself/#comment-2885</guid>
		<description>What, besides the reference at the end? ;-) Citation wasn&#039;t available at time of writing, but the DOI is right there.
Here&#039;s a link:
&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/323/5921/1617&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/323/5921/1617&lt;/a&gt;
&lt;blockquote&gt;The experiments are designed so that the experience provides much more information than the summary given to the subjects pre-experience does.&lt;/blockquote&gt;
If anything, it&#039;s the opposite. In the first study, the experiences of the another woman amounted to just three of how much she liked the man, how much she wanted to befriend the man, and how much she wanted to have a romantic relationship with the man. These were made by marking three continuous 100 mm scales whose endpoints were labeled not at all and very much. Compare that to the profiles filled out by the men themselves.
The difference was even starker for the second experiment. For each personality type, there was only one rating, again on a linear scale from very bad to very good. In contrast, the full descriptions (say for personality type C) said: &quot;These people are fairly competent and well-adjusted but have few qualities that distinguish them from others. They are generally well-liked, partly because they do not pose a threat to the competencies of others. These people tend to succeed in a wide variety of careers but, because of their ability to get along well with others, mostly excel in jobs requiring them to be part of a team rather than take on individual responsibilities. In their personal relationships, they will sacrifice their beliefs because they seek contentment rather than challenge or excitement. Their romantic relationships are fairly successful as long as they are with a person of the same type. Divorce rates do not differ substantially from the national average in this group and when long-term relationships end it is usually because the person&#039;s partner has found a more suitable alternative. These people tend to have a realistic picture of both their talents and their limitations and thus tend to structure their tasks quite appropriately.&quot;
&lt;blockquote&gt;The result is only interesting if the subjects were given the information first, and then asked whether they could predict their response better from that information than from someone else&#039;s experience.&lt;/blockquote&gt;
Actually they were asked to predict which type of information would allow them to make the most accurate response *after* the date.
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>What, besides the reference at the end? <img src='http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/notrocketscience/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif' alt=';-)' class='wp-smiley' />  Citation wasn&#8217;t available at time of writing, but the DOI is right there.<br />
Here&#8217;s a link:<br />
<a href="http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/323/5921/1617" rel="nofollow">http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/323/5921/1617</a></p>
<blockquote><p>The experiments are designed so that the experience provides much more information than the summary given to the subjects pre-experience does.</p></blockquote>
<p>If anything, it&#8217;s the opposite. In the first study, the experiences of the another woman amounted to just three of how much she liked the man, how much she wanted to befriend the man, and how much she wanted to have a romantic relationship with the man. These were made by marking three continuous 100 mm scales whose endpoints were labeled not at all and very much. Compare that to the profiles filled out by the men themselves.<br />
The difference was even starker for the second experiment. For each personality type, there was only one rating, again on a linear scale from very bad to very good. In contrast, the full descriptions (say for personality type C) said: &#8220;These people are fairly competent and well-adjusted but have few qualities that distinguish them from others. They are generally well-liked, partly because they do not pose a threat to the competencies of others. These people tend to succeed in a wide variety of careers but, because of their ability to get along well with others, mostly excel in jobs requiring them to be part of a team rather than take on individual responsibilities. In their personal relationships, they will sacrifice their beliefs because they seek contentment rather than challenge or excitement. Their romantic relationships are fairly successful as long as they are with a person of the same type. Divorce rates do not differ substantially from the national average in this group and when long-term relationships end it is usually because the person&#8217;s partner has found a more suitable alternative. These people tend to have a realistic picture of both their talents and their limitations and thus tend to structure their tasks quite appropriately.&#8221;</p>
<blockquote><p>The result is only interesting if the subjects were given the information first, and then asked whether they could predict their response better from that information than from someone else&#8217;s experience.</p></blockquote>
<p>Actually they were asked to predict which type of information would allow them to make the most accurate response *after* the date.</p>
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		<title>By: Spaulding</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/notrocketscience/2009/03/19/to-predict-what-will-make-you-happy-ask-a-stranger-rather-than-guessing-yourself/#comment-2884</link>
		<dc:creator>Spaulding</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 25 Mar 2009 20:02:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/notrocketscience/2009/03/19/to-predict-what-will-make-you-happy-ask-a-stranger-rather-than-guessing-yourself/#comment-2884</guid>
		<description>Thanks for the follow-up, Ed!
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Thanks for the follow-up, Ed!</p>
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		<title>By: Phil Goetz</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/notrocketscience/2009/03/19/to-predict-what-will-make-you-happy-ask-a-stranger-rather-than-guessing-yourself/#comment-2883</link>
		<dc:creator>Phil Goetz</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 25 Mar 2009 18:47:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/notrocketscience/2009/03/19/to-predict-what-will-make-you-happy-ask-a-stranger-rather-than-guessing-yourself/#comment-2883</guid>
		<description>Of course my next step was to look up the original article, to see how the question was phrased.  But I can&#039;t!  You didn&#039;t mention what the original article was, or where or when it was published, Ed!
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Of course my next step was to look up the original article, to see how the question was phrased.  But I can&#8217;t!  You didn&#8217;t mention what the original article was, or where or when it was published, Ed!</p>
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		<title>By: Phil Goetz</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/notrocketscience/2009/03/19/to-predict-what-will-make-you-happy-ask-a-stranger-rather-than-guessing-yourself/#comment-2882</link>
		<dc:creator>Phil Goetz</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 25 Mar 2009 18:43:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/notrocketscience/2009/03/19/to-predict-what-will-make-you-happy-ask-a-stranger-rather-than-guessing-yourself/#comment-2882</guid>
		<description>The experiments are designed so that the experience provides much more information than the summary given to the subjects pre-experience does.  So the only thing that may be surprising is that the subjects believe that they can predict their enjoyment of the experience from information better than from the ratings of other people.
Whether these experiments are interesting thus depends &lt;i&gt;entirely&lt;/i&gt; on how the subjects were asked the question.  If they were asked, before being given information or being told what that information would be, whether they could predict their response to an experience better by making their own judgement based on information, or from the responses of others, then the result is not interesting.  The subjects did not know that they would be given only a trivial amount of information relative to those who had the experience.  The result is only interesting if the subjects were given the information first, and &lt;i&gt;then&lt;/i&gt; asked whether they could predict their response better from that information than from someone else&#039;s experience.  This post doesn&#039;t say which of these things happened.
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The experiments are designed so that the experience provides much more information than the summary given to the subjects pre-experience does.  So the only thing that may be surprising is that the subjects believe that they can predict their enjoyment of the experience from information better than from the ratings of other people.<br />
Whether these experiments are interesting thus depends <i>entirely</i> on how the subjects were asked the question.  If they were asked, before being given information or being told what that information would be, whether they could predict their response to an experience better by making their own judgement based on information, or from the responses of others, then the result is not interesting.  The subjects did not know that they would be given only a trivial amount of information relative to those who had the experience.  The result is only interesting if the subjects were given the information first, and <i>then</i> asked whether they could predict their response better from that information than from someone else&#8217;s experience.  This post doesn&#8217;t say which of these things happened.</p>
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		<title>By: Ed Yong</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/notrocketscience/2009/03/19/to-predict-what-will-make-you-happy-ask-a-stranger-rather-than-guessing-yourself/#comment-2881</link>
		<dc:creator>Ed Yong</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Mar 2009 23:45:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/notrocketscience/2009/03/19/to-predict-what-will-make-you-happy-ask-a-stranger-rather-than-guessing-yourself/#comment-2881</guid>
		<description>Spaulding and Jake - it&#039;s a good argument but just trawling through the Supplementary info, I think I&#039;ve found the result that falsifies it.
In the speed-dating experiment, there was no difference between how much the women in the two groups enjoyed their dates. It was only their predicted ratings, rather than their actual ones, that were significantly different. If your theory is right, and they were simply being primed by the opinions of others, you would expect an effect on their actual experiences, no?
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Spaulding and Jake &#8211; it&#8217;s a good argument but just trawling through the Supplementary info, I think I&#8217;ve found the result that falsifies it.<br />
In the speed-dating experiment, there was no difference between how much the women in the two groups enjoyed their dates. It was only their predicted ratings, rather than their actual ones, that were significantly different. If your theory is right, and they were simply being primed by the opinions of others, you would expect an effect on their actual experiences, no?</p>
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		<title>By: Spaulding</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/notrocketscience/2009/03/19/to-predict-what-will-make-you-happy-ask-a-stranger-rather-than-guessing-yourself/#comment-2880</link>
		<dc:creator>Spaulding</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Mar 2009 16:31:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/notrocketscience/2009/03/19/to-predict-what-will-make-you-happy-ask-a-stranger-rather-than-guessing-yourself/#comment-2880</guid>
		<description>I maintain that there&#039;s a difference between merely offering info vs. saying &quot;evaluate based on this info.&quot; Plus there&#039;s the issue of sequence - initial information likely has more impact than subsequent information, as Jake suggests. I think one would need to control for these things in order to distinguish a study of prediction from a study of influence.
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I maintain that there&#8217;s a difference between merely offering info vs. saying &#8220;evaluate based on this info.&#8221; Plus there&#8217;s the issue of sequence &#8211; initial information likely has more impact than subsequent information, as Jake suggests. I think one would need to control for these things in order to distinguish a study of prediction from a study of influence.</p>
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		<title>By: Jason Dick</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/notrocketscience/2009/03/19/to-predict-what-will-make-you-happy-ask-a-stranger-rather-than-guessing-yourself/#comment-2879</link>
		<dc:creator>Jason Dick</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Mar 2009 15:43:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/notrocketscience/2009/03/19/to-predict-what-will-make-you-happy-ask-a-stranger-rather-than-guessing-yourself/#comment-2879</guid>
		<description>The only thing I&#039;d worry about with such a study is the following:
&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.xkcd.com/185/&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;http://www.xkcd.com/185/&lt;/a&gt;
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The only thing I&#8217;d worry about with such a study is the following:<br />
<a href="http://www.xkcd.com/185/" rel="nofollow">http://www.xkcd.com/185/</a></p>
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		<title>By: Jake</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/notrocketscience/2009/03/19/to-predict-what-will-make-you-happy-ask-a-stranger-rather-than-guessing-yourself/#comment-2878</link>
		<dc:creator>Jake</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Mar 2009 07:50:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/notrocketscience/2009/03/19/to-predict-what-will-make-you-happy-ask-a-stranger-rather-than-guessing-yourself/#comment-2878</guid>
		<description>I thought a similar thing to what Spaulding thought.
Since everyone entered the dates having read the peer evaluation, it&#039;s still possible that the peer evaluation influenced their future perception of the date more so than their own evaluation based on the profile and pic.
I think, from personal experience, although there may have been a study, that if you form your own opinion and voice it before hearing others&#039; opinions, like in this study, your original opinion is less susceptible to influence by others&#039; opinions, so social persuasion is reduced, but perhaps not completely gone, and it could have created the significant effect described.
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I thought a similar thing to what Spaulding thought.<br />
Since everyone entered the dates having read the peer evaluation, it&#8217;s still possible that the peer evaluation influenced their future perception of the date more so than their own evaluation based on the profile and pic.<br />
I think, from personal experience, although there may have been a study, that if you form your own opinion and voice it before hearing others&#8217; opinions, like in this study, your original opinion is less susceptible to influence by others&#8217; opinions, so social persuasion is reduced, but perhaps not completely gone, and it could have created the significant effect described.</p>
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		<title>By: Jake</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/notrocketscience/2009/03/19/to-predict-what-will-make-you-happy-ask-a-stranger-rather-than-guessing-yourself/#comment-2877</link>
		<dc:creator>Jake</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Mar 2009 07:45:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/notrocketscience/2009/03/19/to-predict-what-will-make-you-happy-ask-a-stranger-rather-than-guessing-yourself/#comment-2877</guid>
		<description>I thought a similar thing to what Spaulding thought.
Since everyone entered the dates having read the peer evaluation, it&#039;s still possible that the peer evaluation influenced their future perception of the date more so than their own evaluation based on the profile and pic.
I think, from personal experience, although there may have been a study, that if you form your own opinion and voice it before hearing others&#039; opinions, like in this study, your original opinion is less susceptible to influence by others&#039; opinions, so social persuasion is reduced, but perhaps not completely gone, and it could have created the significant effect described.
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I thought a similar thing to what Spaulding thought.<br />
Since everyone entered the dates having read the peer evaluation, it&#8217;s still possible that the peer evaluation influenced their future perception of the date more so than their own evaluation based on the profile and pic.<br />
I think, from personal experience, although there may have been a study, that if you form your own opinion and voice it before hearing others&#8217; opinions, like in this study, your original opinion is less susceptible to influence by others&#8217; opinions, so social persuasion is reduced, but perhaps not completely gone, and it could have created the significant effect described.</p>
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