http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/notrocketscience/2009/07/02/climate-change-and-the-mystery-of-the-shrinking-sheep/ Mon, 26 Nov 2012 12:00:51 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.4.2 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/notrocketscience/2009/07/02/climate-change-and-the-mystery-of-the-shrinking-sheep/#comment-3970 Ron Broberg Tue, 07 Jul 2009 16:34:47 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/notrocketscience/2009/07/02/climate-change-and-the-mystery-of-the-shrinking-sheep/#comment-3970 The Tiree data I'm looking at (Rich's link) is monthly data. The number posted above was for the reported monthly max. The monthly minimums show a similar increase for January: .077 degC/year for a trend increase of 1.6 C for the 21 years. Also, precipitation trend for January is decreasing: -0.94mm/year or -20mm for the 21 years. That's roughly a 13% drop in January precip. Warmer temps, less precip. Can't speak for the number, length, or severity of cold spells though. The Tiree data I’m looking at (Rich’s link) is monthly data. The number posted above was for the reported monthly max. The monthly minimums show a similar increase for January: .077 degC/year for a trend increase of 1.6 C for the 21 years.
Also, precipitation trend for January is decreasing: -0.94mm/year or -20mm for the 21 years. That’s roughly a 13% drop in January precip.
Warmer temps, less precip.
Can’t speak for the number, length, or severity of cold spells though.

]]> http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/notrocketscience/2009/07/02/climate-change-and-the-mystery-of-the-shrinking-sheep/#comment-3969 Blackbird Tue, 07 Jul 2009 12:05:00 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/notrocketscience/2009/07/02/climate-change-and-the-mystery-of-the-shrinking-sheep/#comment-3969 The key factor is probably not average winter temperature but very cold spells which are likely to kill leaner sheep. The data must be there as well... The key factor is probably not average winter temperature but very cold spells which are likely to kill leaner sheep. The data must be there as well…

]]> http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/notrocketscience/2009/07/02/climate-change-and-the-mystery-of-the-shrinking-sheep/#comment-3968 Rich Tue, 07 Jul 2009 10:50:14 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/notrocketscience/2009/07/02/climate-change-and-the-mystery-of-the-shrinking-sheep/#comment-3968 Ron, yes, I did have second thoughts. The article was about <i>recent</i> warming so the trend since 1930 is small yet irrelevant. I tried Stornoway too and, for the relevant years got a rise much like yours. I was going to post it but you beat me to it. We should probably dig deeper to determine the change in the length of the seasons as relevant to the sheep but, really, the point is already made: it got warmer and the sheep got smaller. I can't take credit for the quote, though, which is from Donna @4. Ron, yes, I did have second thoughts. The article was about recent warming so the trend since 1930 is small yet irrelevant. I tried Stornoway too and, for the relevant years got a rise much like yours. I was going to post it but you beat me to it.
We should probably dig deeper to determine the change in the length of the seasons as relevant to the sheep but, really, the point is already made: it got warmer and the sheep got smaller.
I can’t take credit for the quote, though, which is from Donna @4.

]]> http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/notrocketscience/2009/07/02/climate-change-and-the-mystery-of-the-shrinking-sheep/#comment-3967 Ron Broberg Mon, 06 Jul 2009 21:47:26 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/notrocketscience/2009/07/02/climate-change-and-the-mystery-of-the-shrinking-sheep/#comment-3967 Rich@6 Since the salient point here is winter temperatures and the relevant range is the years 1986 - 2006 (as given by the graph in the article), I ran the METs Tiree numbers for January 1986 - 2006. January temps from 1986-2006 increase on a linear trend of about 0.058 degC/year or about 1.2 deg C for the 21 year span. To quote you Rich, <em>But at least we can look at the science and understand what it's telling us.</em> Rich@6
Since the salient point here is winter temperatures and the relevant range is the years 1986 – 2006 (as given by the graph in the article), I ran the METs Tiree numbers for January 1986 – 2006.
January temps from 1986-2006 increase on a linear trend of about 0.058 degC/year or about 1.2 deg C for the 21 year span.
To quote you Rich, But at least we can look at the science and understand what it’s telling us.

]]> http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/notrocketscience/2009/07/02/climate-change-and-the-mystery-of-the-shrinking-sheep/#comment-3966 Ken Kryszak Mon, 06 Jul 2009 16:55:32 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/notrocketscience/2009/07/02/climate-change-and-the-mystery-of-the-shrinking-sheep/#comment-3966 Fascinating. I can't help wondering if this is part of the mechanism that develops micro-fauna amongst isolated populations? All of the required factors had been in place for a long time apparently. A relatively small, isolated population, free from predators and direct human influences [even supplemental foods count here]. All that was needed was a nudge across the threshold of speciation [genetic drift at least] in the form of milder climate. Sounds like what happened to a lot of island populations around the end of the last ice age. Fascinating.
I can’t help wondering if this is part of the mechanism that develops micro-fauna amongst isolated populations? All of the required factors had been in place for a long time apparently. A relatively small, isolated population, free from predators and direct human influences [even supplemental foods count here]. All that was needed was a nudge across the threshold of speciation [genetic drift at least] in the form of milder climate.
Sounds like what happened to a lot of island populations around the end of the last ice age.

]]> http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/notrocketscience/2009/07/02/climate-change-and-the-mystery-of-the-shrinking-sheep/#comment-3965 Rich Mon, 06 Jul 2009 14:24:55 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/notrocketscience/2009/07/02/climate-change-and-the-mystery-of-the-shrinking-sheep/#comment-3965 There's a nice graph of sheep weight but no graph of temperature. The Met Office weather station at Tiree - which faces the North Altlantic Drift much as Hirta does - has an average rise in temperature since 1930 of about 0.004 of a degree per year. Of course, if you already <i>know</i> that it's man-made climate change that's shrinking the sheep there's no need to ask about the temperature. But at least we can look at the science and understand what it's telling us. <a href="http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/stationdata/tireedata.txt" rel="nofollow">http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/stationdata/tireedata.txt</a> There’s a nice graph of sheep weight but no graph of temperature.
The Met Office weather station at Tiree – which faces the North Altlantic Drift much as Hirta does – has an average rise in temperature since 1930 of about 0.004 of a degree per year.
Of course, if you already know that it’s man-made climate change that’s shrinking the sheep there’s no need to ask about the temperature. But at least we can look at the science and understand what it’s telling us.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/stationdata/tireedata.txt

]]> http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/notrocketscience/2009/07/02/climate-change-and-the-mystery-of-the-shrinking-sheep/#comment-3964 Ron Broberg Sat, 04 Jul 2009 18:38:35 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/notrocketscience/2009/07/02/climate-change-and-the-mystery-of-the-shrinking-sheep/#comment-3964 <em>So they are in fact benefiting from climate change. That's interesting.</em> You must be one of the slackers favored by milder winters! ;-) So they are in fact benefiting from climate change. That’s interesting.
You must be one of the slackers favored by milder winters!

]]> http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/notrocketscience/2009/07/02/climate-change-and-the-mystery-of-the-shrinking-sheep/#comment-3963 donna Sat, 04 Jul 2009 02:46:26 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/notrocketscience/2009/07/02/climate-change-and-the-mystery-of-the-shrinking-sheep/#comment-3963 It's not a question of good or bad. It is a simple question of actual evidence that it is happening. Some species will benefit from global warming and some will not. That's basic evolutionary biology. The trouble is there are still a large number of people who simply don't believe it is happening. Of course, there are still people who think the world is flat, big foot is out there and it is only a matter of time before we find that elusive beast in the loch. Of course, we can't do anything about big foot and we may be too late to do anything at all about the cycle we have created that is causing this period of global warming, but at least we can look at the science and understand what it is telling us. It’s not a question of good or bad. It is a simple question of actual evidence that it is happening. Some species will benefit from global warming and some will not. That’s basic evolutionary biology. The trouble is there are still a large number of people who simply don’t believe it is happening. Of course, there are still people who think the world is flat, big foot is out there and it is only a matter of time before we find that elusive beast in the loch. Of course, we can’t do anything about big foot and we may be too late to do anything at all about the cycle we have created that is causing this period of global warming, but at least we can look at the science and understand what it is telling us.

]]> http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/notrocketscience/2009/07/02/climate-change-and-the-mystery-of-the-shrinking-sheep/#comment-3962 Phil Fri, 03 Jul 2009 05:26:33 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/notrocketscience/2009/07/02/climate-change-and-the-mystery-of-the-shrinking-sheep/#comment-3962 Those sheep are obviously shills for Al Gore and faking the shrinking because global warming is a hoax perpetrated by the big eco lobby...yeah that's it. Those sheep are obviously shills for Al Gore and faking the shrinking because global warming is a hoax perpetrated by the big eco lobby…yeah that’s it.

]]> http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/notrocketscience/2009/07/02/climate-change-and-the-mystery-of-the-shrinking-sheep/#comment-3961 Elenko_Prestoperus Fri, 03 Jul 2009 02:50:52 +0000 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/notrocketscience/2009/07/02/climate-change-and-the-mystery-of-the-shrinking-sheep/#comment-3961 heresy...everything is worse in a warming world. haven't you learned that already? heresy…everything is worse in a warming world. haven’t you learned that already?

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