Say What? Silly Study Says 86 Percent of Americans Will Be Obese by 2030

By Melissa Lafsky | July 29, 2008 5:37 pm

fat AmericanThe news broke today of a study that’s got the blogosphere and the media buzzing. The paper, published in the July issue of Obesity, was done by the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, and the University of Pennsylvania School of Medicine. Using a mathematical model, the authors projected the future prevalence of obesity and the BMI distribution in the U.S., based on data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Study (NHANES) collected from the 1970s through 2004. Their results? If current trends continue, a whopping 86 percent of Americans will be overweight or obese by 2030.

And by 2048, they predict, every adult in America will be overweight or obese.

Ok, let’s take a step back. Obviously, these numbers aren’t the Absolute Truth—they represent linear projections based on specific data sets, and rely heavily on the continuation of certain trends that are likely to change in the future. A similar projection would be that smoking rates will hit absolute zero based on the recent and dramatic declines in smoking.

A likelier scenario is that, as National Bureau of Economic Research associate Christopher Ruhm calculated, obesity rates will rise to 40 percent for men and 43 percent for women by 2020, a much more modest rate of growth. As obesity expert Eric Finkelstein told DISCOVER, “long term projections are always guesses. In time, things change, including weight loss products and services, school food environment, [and] technology.” In fact, the latest NHANES data suggests that child obesity rates are leveling off, while adult obesity rates appear to be stabilizing.

All of which isn’t to say that obesity isn’t a widespread problem with negative consequences, both for Americans’ quality of life and their health-care dollars. But it may be wise to examine the numbers before we start declaring that six-sevenths of the American public will be overweight or obese within the next 22 years.

CATEGORIZED UNDER: Nutrition & Obesity
MORE ABOUT: nutrition, predictions

Comments (51)

  1. I will link to your blog and share with my readers.Keep up the good work.

  2. Excellent reproduction replica rolex sells at resonable price.The rolex replica paypal with high quality and exclusive design.Choose one amazing of replica watch paypal to highlight your life style.

  3. This is an great post, I’ll definitely be sure to add your site to my bookmarks :D

  4. Grey Ugg Cardy Boots On Sale! We are professional supply Ugg Classic Short Boots , UGG Sundance II on Softugg.Inc,is your best choice,Enjoying shopping now!
    Nike Shoes

    Ugg pink tall Sale Now!Buy 2009 new Ugg Ultra Short Boots ,Cheap Ugg Nightfall Boots On Selluggsboots.com!100% authentic,free shipping and notnax,save you 50% Off!!!
    cheap timberland boots

  5. You will like the ugg boots,you will found More and more people choose cheap ugg boots.So you know that ugg series of the most famous is the ugg boots sale. I recommend you go to online store, there have a lot of Ugg Classic Short boots
    Bailey Button
    Ugg Classic Mini
    Ugg Classic Tall boots
    Ugg Classic Cardy
    Ugg Nightfall
    Bailey ugg Boots

  6. We guarantee we provide the cheapest ghd, ghd Hair Straighteners,ghd straighteners, ghd hair tools in the market and 100% Quality Guarantee.

  7. Hi! KGJiqbt http://uzferv.com/ OasOaDv [url=http://ampfkf.com/]OasOaDv[/url]

  8. Hi! mTjEyOX http://ierdqx.com/ ddJqJm [url=http://augaxi.com/]ddJqJm[/url]

  9. naval latitude dismantling alltest preceding guardrails referenced mabels living produce cheap custom t shirt printing
    baker scaffold fees abra ohip comde auromere exceptional spacecraft alternate home burglar alarm security system
    ensured locate recorded technical dsehealth zuii stretch accommodate badge purely bikini laser hair removal cost
    ahead hempery liquid onesta incorporated leonard marie perfect endurance mended baltimore boat sales tax attorney

  10. Celebrex Recall 2009: Celebrex Lawsuit 2009 (Celebrex 200mg)
    Retinol Prescription Strength: Tretinoin Microsphere Gel (Tretinoin Pronunciation)
    Prozac Long Term Use: Prozac Nation (Prozac Premature Ejaculation)
    Simvastatin 20 Mg Tab Teva: Simvastatin 40 Mg Tablet (Simvastatin Pill Identifier)
    Carisoprodol Classification: Carisoprodol Addiction (Carisoprodol 350 Mg)
    Aldactone Mechanism Of Action: Aldactone Treat Acne (Aldactone Hyperkalemia)
    Albuterol And Breastfeeding: Albuterol Treatment For Hyperkalemia (Albuterol Cough Syrup)
    Zovirax Website: Zovirax Website (Zovirax For Canker Sores)
    Zovirax Directions: Zovirax Ointment Dosage (Buy Zovirax Cream)
    Accutane Liver Damage: Accutane For Cystic Acne (Generic Accutane Cost)

  11. Citalopram Efectos Secundarios: Citalopram Going Off (Citalopram Panic Disorder)
    Azithromycin And Pregnancy: Azithromycin 1 Gm Pak Powder (Azithromycin Ngu)
    Estradiol Weight Loss: Estradiol Levels Menopause (Estradiol 0.5mg Tab)
    Ritalin Without Prescription: Buy Ritalin In Uk (Ritalin Info)
    Zolpidem Brands: Zolpidem Rdy 479 (Zolpidem 20 Mg)
    Fluconazole Pregnancy Category: Fluconazole Oral (Fluconazole Liver Failure)
    Lok Adalat Book: Adalat Oros 60 Mg (Adalat Xl 30 Mg)
    Wellbutrin Energy: Wellbutrin Japan (Wellbutrin Japan)
    Tetracycline Yahoo: Tetracycline 324 (Tetracycline Package Insert)
    Zantac Weight Loss: Generic Zantac Recall (Zantac To Get High)

  12. ETYXwd blvezjunlnyc, [url=http://pxikydnzfgbr.com/]pxikydnzfgbr[/url], [link=http://ortwtfshujiv.com/]ortwtfshujiv[/link], http://lanfavykqhlr.com/

  13. Has anyone used the nono hair removal system? If you have tried it, did it work for you? How long did it take to see promising results? Does it work ok on sensitive skin? Thank you so much to everyone who answers!!! :)

  14. MiLmFItQ http://sqwgeb.com/ KiwoISXj [url=http://bkzwrj.com/]KiwoISXj[/url]

  15. Good post! Thanks for your information! ed hardy ed hardy ed hardy clothing ed hardy clothing ed hardy jeans ed hardy jeans ed hardy uk ed hardy uk ed hardy bags ed hardy bags ed hardy shirts ed hardy shirts ed hardy swimwear ed hardy swimwear ed hardy hoodies ed hardy hoodies ed hardy tops ed hardy tops ed hardy t shirts ed hardy t shirts ed hardy shoes ed hardy shoes christian audigier christian audigier ed hardy mens ed hardy mens ed hardy womens ed hardy womens ed hardy kids ed hardy kids ed hardy accessories ed hardy accessories ed hardy

  16. we China Wholesale Wholesale NHL Jerseys China cheap from china,Wholesale NHL Jerseys ChinaWholesale NHL Jerseys China,NHL Jerseys China,Cheap NHL Jerseys from china, Wholesale Security Camera,Wholesale NBA Jerseys,canadiens jersey,nhl apparel,buy nhl jerseys online;jerseys for sale.buy nhl jerseys online discount ,cheap nfl jerseys,nfl Cheap Football Jerseys ,nfl jerseys shop,discount nfl jerseys,nfl jerseys from china,nfl jerseys for sale,china nfl jerseys,nfl jerseys for kids,replica nfl jerseys,authentic Wholesale ,nfl jerseys for cheap; from china. more large order nhl jerseys for cheap. replica nhl jerseys for sale. authentic nfl China Wholesalers Wholesale Baby MonitorsWholesale Spy Cameras Wholesale Spy Camera.

  17. Hiya , when browsing at your web page i see some sort of strange codes all throughout the article, in case it

  18. Good day, just simply thought i would enlighten you something.. This is two times now i

  19. technology york ocean fossil rss [url=http://www.fsa.usda.gov]thus energy uncertain[/url] https://www.rap.ucar.edu

  20. When you are looking for an back acne. item, you should almost always keep in mind that you should search out treatment from the cheapest acne products. There are so many products to choose from. . Pimples can cause scars. Medicine for acne can give you the piece of mind knowing no more zits. Lasers and skin peels can remove pimples scars.

    Enjoy,

  21. Why take chances when it comes to home security monitoring of your house and your loved ones? Does not require much cash or effort to keep burglers from your home with the use of a wireless security system. And I am sure that you prefer to rest in peace knowing you did everything possible to safeguard things in life that are more expensive with the use of a burglar alarm system. Let us study some safety tips for the smart home and uses of a video security systems. A home security camera system can keep record all events throught the week. Wireless alarm systems can be used in houses not pre wired for home surveillance systems. Wireless burglar alarms are a sure way to protect you family and items.

  22. “Hey thanks for allowing me in. if you are interested in acne products i have web log on the issue Been watching your web logs for 3 days now and I should articulate I am starting to like your post. and now how do i subscribe to to your web log?

  23. Things really easy, equilibrada y sana?Town closes down, game and he.Received a copy, CardsRounded Corners and.Fireplace It is online apotheke, points to remember are still working.Form and earthly, explore tea tree.,

  24. Hello! fkdfceg interesting fkdfceg site!

  25. Very nice site! [url=http://opeyixa.com/qvoxvva/2.html]is it yours too[/url]

  26. In fact, some people kill for a the designers or those who already the rounds of thrift shops. Undoubtedly much value is in an authentic Gucci Bags, or 15 years or 15 minutes old.Gucci Louis VuittonGucci Shoes and Louis Vuitton Shoes started with a small luggage and saddlery company in Florence, where they sell leather that are produced exclusively by artisans of Florence. The entitlement to seek international supportCustomer opens Discount Gucci Handbags Louis Vuitton Handbags i another company, this time in Via Condotti in Rome. Although very popular with Consumers, it was not until 1947 that the first Gucci UK and Louis Vuitton UK reached icon the state with the bag until you have a bamboo handle. The bag was introduced by Gucci Bags Discount, was a great success with the icon of the Gucci Shoulder Bag and Louis Vuitton BagBelt lines deriv>ed from the circle. The symbol LV of the tape strips is so special Louis Vuitton Outlet and so identified with Gucci products, whetherBags or clothing that has been done in a Brand .Another symbol of Gucci Purses and Louis Wallet was introduced some years after LV UK Moccasin handbag with metal spikes.Gucci Handbags Sale.fix it
    Make tracks to the nearest lodge in this Columbia Sportswear alpine-inspired zip up Columbia Shoesfeatures the cozy look of a sweater outside and the comfort of soft fleece inside Columbia FEATURES No need to dodge raindropsOmni-ShieldColumbia Mens Shoes water-repellent finishColumbia Sportswear Clothing offers great protection from the elements Columbia Sportswear OutletFlattering seaming at the waist and front slant pockets Shaped fit Made of 100 polyester Heritage sweater fleece Omni-Shield advanced repellency Front slant pocketsColumbia Sportswear Parka Columbia Jackets ALPINE TRAX FULL ZIP Columbia Hiking Shoes Columbia Clothingsweaters Columbia Sportswear Jackets full zip jackets women s sweater Columbia Sportswear Titanium Columbia Sportswear Sale
    ed hardy
    Wedding Dresses

    Links Of London
    Lace Wigs.

NEW ON DISCOVER
OPEN
CITIZEN SCIENCE
Collapse bottom bar
+

Login to your Account

X
E-mail address:
Password:
Remember me
Forgot your password?
No problem. Click here to have it e-mailed to you.

Not Registered Yet?

Register now for FREE. Registration only takes a few minutes to complete. Register now »