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	<title>Reality Base &#187; the fall of capitalism</title>
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		<title>The Biotech Bailout: A Good Idea?</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/realitybase/2008/12/18/the-biotech-bailout-a-good-idea/</link>
		<comments>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/realitybase/2008/12/18/the-biotech-bailout-a-good-idea/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 18 Dec 2008 22:10:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Melissa Lafsky</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Biotech]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Science Goes to Washington]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[financial crisis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[the fall of capitalism]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/realitybase/2008/12/18/the-biotech-bailout-a-good-idea/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Car companies are doing it, banks are doing it, and magazines may (ahem) soon be doing it—bailouts are all the rage these days. Which makes it less surprising that the biotech industry is getting in on the action. Lobbyists for the biotech industry are pushing Washington to pass a law granting biotech companies that are [...]]]></description>
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<p>Car companies are doing it, banks are doing it, and magazines may (ahem) soon be doing it—bailouts are all the rage these days. Which makes it less surprising that the biotech industry is getting in on the action. Lobbyists for the biotech industry are <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/10/business/10biobail.html?ref=technology" target="_blank">pushing Washington to pass a law</a> granting biotech companies that are currently hemorrhaging money (a.k.a. nearly all of them) a chance to get cash now in exchange for not taking tax credits in the future should they become profitable.</p>
<p>According to the <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/10/business/10biobail.html?ref=technology" target="_blank"><em>New York Times</em></a>, the proposed bill:</p>
<blockquote><p>could enable the industry to receive potentially hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars, on the condition that the money would be used for research and development.</p>
<p>The effort comes as many smaller biotechnology companies, particularly those trying to develop drugs, are facing a severe cash shortage that is forcing them to dismiss workers, curtail research and even file for bankruptcy protection or liquidation.</p></blockquote>
<p>In fact, it&#8217;s so bad that BIO, the main lobbyist for the industry, <a href="http://www.bizjournals.com/houston/stories/2008/12/08/daily32.html" target="_blank">is saying that</a> a quarter of the 370 publicly traded U.S. biotech companies have less than six months of cash on hand.</p>
<p><span id="more-374"></span></p>
<p>And, of course, creating an effective drug can take millions of dollars and years—even decades—to accomplish. Not to mention that, if clinical trials go badly, it&#8217;s back to the drawing board, making biotech one of the riskiest industries out there. And risk is not something lawmakers are loving these days.</p>
<p>Still, the potential health benefits of the drugs biotech <a href="http://discovermagazine.com/2002/apr/featgenes/" target="_blank">has/could/will produce</a> are massive, and we do have that whole aging population and <a href="http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/realitybase/2008/11/19/another-facet-of-the-health-care-crisis-miserable-doctors/" target="_blank">health care crisis</a> to contend with. So if we&#8217;re already <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/12/18/obama-economic-stimulus-c_n_151986.html" target="_blank">writing $850 billion checks</a>, we may as well throw a little biotech&#8217;s way.</p>
<p>Related:<br />
RB: <a href="http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/realitybase/2008/06/02/reality-check-the-state-of-biotech/">Reality Check: Biotech</a><br />
RB: <a href="http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/realitybase/2008/11/19/another-facet-of-the-health-care-crisis-miserable-doctors/">Another Facet of the Health Care Crisis: Miserable Doctors</a><br />
RB: <a href="http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/realitybase/2008/06/19/get-thee-to-medical-school/">Get Thee to Medical School!</a></p>
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		<slash:comments>141</slash:comments>
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		<title>Are Scientists to Blame for the Financial Crisis?</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/realitybase/2008/11/24/are-scientists-to-blame-for-the-financial-crisis/</link>
		<comments>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/realitybase/2008/11/24/are-scientists-to-blame-for-the-financial-crisis/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 24 Nov 2008 17:13:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Melissa Lafsky</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Science Goes to Washington]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[financial crisis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[the fall of capitalism]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/realitybase/2008/11/24/are-scientists-to-blame-for-the-financial-crisis/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[When the fed is spending $7.4 trillion to clean up the wreckage, you know someone&#8217;s gotta take the blame. So who should shoulder it? Scientific American thinks at least some of the fault belongs with the physics and math whizzes who built the risk models that dug our grave. In a byline-free editorial, the magazine [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><script src="http://w.sharethis.com/widget/?wp=2.3.1&amp;publisher=67cc06de-58af-40be-9e8e-7c994abde46a" type="text/javascript" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>When the fed is <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&amp;sid=arEE1iClqDrk&amp;refer=home" target="_blank">spending $7.4 trillion</a> to clean up the wreckage, you know someone&#8217;s gotta take the blame. So who should shoulder it? <em>Scientific American</em> thinks at least some of the fault belongs with the physics and math whizzes who built the risk models that dug our grave.</p>
<p>In a byline-free editorial, the magazine <a href="http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=after-the-crash" target="_blank">traces our woes</a> back to a 2004 meeting in which the SEC agreed to lift a rule specifying debt limits and capital reserves &#8220;needed for a rainy day.&#8221; This move provided the requisite billions that banks pumped into mortgage-backed securities and derivatives. And who created the structures for these impossibly complex schemes that caused the mass bank implosion? Wall Street&#8217;s band of &#8220;lapsed physicists and mathematical virtuosos,&#8221; also known as &#8220;<a href="http://www.ederman.com/new/docs/risk-quants_dont_learn.html" target="_blank">quants</a>,&#8221; who &#8220;both invented these oblique securities and created software models that supposedly measured the risk a firm would incur by holding them in its portfolio.&#8221;</p>
<p>Given that hindsight is 20-20, we now realize that all these models are really only accurate for a limited period of time, at a very narrow confidence level—meaning that whenever those conditions aren&#8217;t fantasy-scenario optimal, the actual risk can be enough to incite a global meltdown. Good to know!</p>
<p>So should we be tarring and feathering the brains who built the beam we used to hang ourselves? It&#8217;s hardly that simple, a fact that <em>Sci Am</em> acknowledges while still laying on the heavy guilt:</p>
<p><span id="more-344"></span></p>
<blockquote><p>The causes of this fiasco are multifold—the Federal Reserve’s easy-money policy played a big role—but the rocket scientists and geeks also bear their share of the blame. After the crash, the quants and traders they serve need to accept the necessity for a total makeover&#8230;</p>
<p>For its part, the quant community needs to undertake a search for better models—perhaps seeking help from behavioral economics, which studies irrationality of investors’ decision making, and from virtual market tools that use “intelligent agents” to mimic more faithfully the ups and downs of the activities of buyers and sellers.</p></blockquote>
<p>In other words, maybe we should start calculating risk using models that take into account actual human behavior, as opposed to some nebulous dreamland where <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&amp;sid=arEE1iClqDrk&amp;refer=home" target="_blank">markets don&#8217;t freeze solid</a> and eras don&#8217;t <a href="http://www.portfolio.com/news-markets/national-news/portfolio/2008/11/11/The-End-of-Wall-Streets-Boom?page=0" target="_blank">go down in a haze of napalm</a>.</p>
<p>Related:<br />
RB: <a href="http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/realitybase/2008/10/27/when-the-economy-tanks-we-suddenly-get-esp/">When the Economy Tanks, We Suddenly “Develop” ESP</a><br />
RB: <a href="http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/realitybase/2008/10/08/as-the-economy-plummets-so-do-us-driving-miles/">As the Economy Plummets, So Do U.S. Driving Miles</a></p>
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		<slash:comments>117</slash:comments>
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		<title>High Gas Prices = Good; High Gas Prices = Bad</title>
		<link>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/realitybase/2008/10/13/high-gas-prices-good-high-gas-prices-bad/</link>
		<comments>http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/realitybase/2008/10/13/high-gas-prices-good-high-gas-prices-bad/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 13 Oct 2008 16:23:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Melissa Lafsky</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Climate Change]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Energy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[oil prices]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[the fall of capitalism]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/realitybase/2008/10/13/high-gas-prices-good-high-gas-prices-bad/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[So we&#8217;ve been driving a lot less, which is good. We&#8217;ve also been shifting attitudes about oil as a resource and adjusting our lives to consume less of it, which is even better. And we&#8217;ve been lavishing more time and attention (and money) on alternative energy, which is best of all. But now oil prices [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><script src="http://w.sharethis.com/widget/?wp=2.3.1&amp;publisher=67cc06de-58af-40be-9e8e-7c994abde46a" type="text/javascript" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>So we&#8217;ve been <a href="http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/realitybase/2008/10/08/as-the-economy-plummets-so-do-us-driving-miles/">driving a lot less</a>, which is good. We&#8217;ve also been shifting attitudes about oil as a resource and <a href="http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/realitybase/2008/06/19/should-climate-activists-be-celebrating-high-oil-prices/">adjusting our lives</a> to consume less of it, which is even better. And we&#8217;ve been lavishing <a href="http://investment.suite101.com/article.cfm/top_alternative_energy_investments" target="_blank">more time and attention</a> (<a href="http://money.cnn.com/2004/10/25/markets/alt_energy/" target="_blank">and money</a>) on alternative energy, which is best of all.</p>
<p>But now oil prices are <a href="http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1849215,00.html" target="_blank">plummeting as fast as they rose</a>, and analysts are worried that all those silver linings will be ripped out and tossed aside. As the economy grinds to a halt and the government doles out $700 billion checks, <em>Time</em>&#8216;s Bryan Walsh <a href="http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1847409,00.html" target="_blank">wonders</a> if alternative fuel initiatives—and, for that matter, any climate change legislation—might be shoved to the back of the line behind our bubbling economic woes.</p>
<p>Even if the gas price dip is temporary and/or U.S. consumption habits remain changed, the credit and spending slashes that are already underway could put the kibosh on funding for many alt-energy projects, as Walsh points out. Plus there&#8217;s the matter of gas prices as a source of political leverage: The Warner-Lieberman bill, Congress&#8217; first real attempt to pass cap-and-trade legislation, was defeated when Republicans throttled it with the charge that <a href="http://thehill.com/business--lobby/warner-lieberman-bill-could-raise-gas-prices-2008-05-19.html" target="_blank">carbon caps would lead to even higher oil prices</a>.</p>
<p><span id="more-275"></span></p>
<p>Granted, when world markets are <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/13/us-stocks-shoot-up-head-f_n_134112.html" target="_blank">bouncing up and down like bungee jumpers</a> and phrases like &#8220;<a href="http://business.smh.com.au/business/bush-pleads-for-unity-to-fight-global-economic-meltdown-20081011-4ys1.html" target="_blank">global economic meltdown</a>&#8221; are standard fare in the headlines, there&#8217;s no guarantee that the price of oil (or the price of anything) will stay where it is. And it&#8217;s too soon to write off Americans as &#8220;entitled saps&#8221; who&#8217;ll toss the Prius they bought when prices hit $4 a gallon and buy a Hummer as soon as the number is back down to $2.50. But as with just about everything in the modern world, we really have no clue how the oil mess is going to pan out. So we may as well do the best we can—and &#8220;<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/28/opinion/28friedman.html" target="_blank">greening the bailout</a>&#8221; is as good a place as any to start.</p>
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		<slash:comments>139</slash:comments>
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