As I’m writing this at 2:30 pm on Thursday in Colorado, Super Typhoon Nepartak is reported to be storming ashore on the southeastern coast of Taiwan with wind gusts up to about 180 miles per hour.
I’m not sure of the storm’s sustained wind speed at landfall; we’ll have to wait for that. But as of earlier today, Nepartak had managed to hold on to Category 5 strength, which it has sustained for almost two days.
On Wednesday, the storm attained a peak wind speed of 175 miles per hour.
Video captured by James Reynolds of Earth Uncut TV shows violent rainfall tearing through Taitung city during the evening local time:
— James Reynolds (@EarthUncutTV) July 7, 2016
The storm is forecast to bring as much as three feet of rain to the island of Taiwan, threatening devastating flooding and landslides. After crossing the island, Nepartak is expected to make a second landfall in China on Saturday as a tropical storm.
A week of heavy monsoon rains in eastern and central China have already caused massive flooding, resulting in the deaths of about 140 people. More than 26 million people in 11 provinces are reported to have been affected.
And now, many of those same people will be facing renewed devastation from the remnants of Nepartak.
Feasting on unusually warm Pacific Ocean waters, fearsome Super Typhoon Nepartak is churning directly toward Taiwan, where it is forecast to make landfall tomorrow.
In just 24 hours spanning Monday and Tuesday, Nepartak exploded from a tropical storm with winds of about 70 miles per hour to a Category 4 storm with 150 mph winds.
Over 88-degree waters (31 degrees C), which is up to 3.6 degrees above normal, Nepartak has now strengthened to a Category 5 storm. Its maximum sustained winds were pegged this morning at 173 mph, with gusts up to an incredible 207. (The thumbnail at right is an infrared image of the super typhoon with its forecast track.)
Click on the screenshot at the top of this post to watch a highly detailed animation of images acquired today by the Himawari-8 satellite. As the animation shows, the storm features a compact, round eye surrounded by spiral arms where intense convection is taking place.
From a trail near my house along Colorado’s Front Range, the majestic Rockies ordinarily stand out in clear relief against blue Western skies. But when I set out on a run this morning, those skies were gauzy, and the mountains were barely visible.
The cause: smoke blowing in from wildfires burning to the west.
With temperatures beginning to soar under a growing dome of high pressure, firefighters are struggling to contain major wildfires in California, Arizona, New Mexico and other western states.
The Sherpa Fire near Santa Barbara has garnered the most media attention — and rightfully so, since it is burning near a highly populated area and threatens many homes. As I’m writing this on Saturday afternoon, it has covered more than 7,000 acres. That’s about a quarter of the size of the nearby city of Santa Barbara.
The fire, which is burning in the Santa Ynez Mountains, has frequently raced downhill toward California Highway 101 along the coast. It has prompted the mandatory evacuation of about 270 homes.
The animation above shows its evolution during Thursday and Friday, as seen from the vantage of space. The animation consists of images captured by three satellites on June 16 and 17: NASA’s Terra and Aqua, and the Suomi NPP satellite. (The first and last images in the animation linger slightly longer than the others.)
The fire has also been visible to the GOES-West weather satellite: Read More
Earlier this week, NASA released its monthly analysis of global average temperatures — and now NOAA has followed with its own.
The two agencies concur: With last month coming in as the warmest May on record, average temperatures across Earth’s land and sea surfaces continue to run at record highs.
According to both NOAA and NASA, January through May 2016 was the warmest such period on record. And the record-breaking streak actually goes back even farther — a total of 13 months by NOAA’s reckoning. That’s the longest such streak since the record began in 1880.
NASA, which uses the same temperature data but goes about its analysis differently, finds that each of the last eight months has been record warm.
Other tidbits from NOAA’s report: Read More
I created the animation above to show how the heat wave coming to a large portion of the United States is forecast to evolve between now and Tuesday.
Check out the spreading stain of deep red in the graphical forecast maps that make up the animation. The stain shows temperatures soaring under a massive heat dome forecast to build over Southern California, Arizona, other parts of the Southwest, and beyond.
Not shown in the animation is the stifling heat and humidity already afflicting parts of the Southern Plains. More about that in a minute. But first…
As you watch the animation, watch for the high temperatures in Phoenix and Los Angeles. Also check out how the red stain fills the meandering trace of the Grand Canyon in northern Arizona. The canyon is so deep that it is usually considerably warmer than the higher elevations on the southern and northern rims.
Los Angeles is now forecast by the National Weather Service to top out at 103 degrees on Monday. (The animation pegs it a 101, but as I’ve been preparing this post, the forecast has been updated.)
After El Niño failed to deliver salvation from California’s epic drought, it has now come to this:
Statewide, snowpack is down to just 6 percent of normal for this time of year.
For all intent and purposes, this vital source of water for tens of millions of Californians, and one of the world’s most productive agricultural economies, has vanished prematurely. The culprit: a sunny and warm spring.
And with La Niña probably on the way, things could get worse before they get better.
That’s the bad news. The sort of good news is that while El Niño didn’t bring salvation, it did bring a fair amount of relief. Statewide, snowpack this past winter pushed up above 80 percent of normal, with much of the relief occurring in the northern part of the state (but leaving the south dry). Once the snow started melting out, water flooded into reservoirs.
As a result, major California reservoirs were at 87 percent of capacity on June 14, according to the California Department of Resources. That’s way better than at the same time last year, when storage had dwindled to an average of 59 percent of normal.
Even so, not all reservoirs are brimming. Far from it, as the map at right shows. (Click to enlarge it.) Moreover, warmer temperatures bring increased evaporation from reservoirs.
The premature melt-out of California’s snowpack this spring also gives us a glimpse of what we should probably expect in coming years: As human-caused warming progresses, more snow will fall in the mountains as rain instead, and it will melt-out earlier and faster, just as happened in California this spring.
In turn, this will throw out of whack hydrologic systems designed with plentiful and long-lasting snowpack in mind. In California and elsewhere in the West, snowpack is supposed to serve as a giant reservoir that can provide a steady source of meltwater during the dry months of summer and fall. Read More
Another month gone, and another record bites the dust.
According to an analysis by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, last month was the warmest May in a record extending back to 1880. By the reckoning of NASA GISS, this marks the eighth straight month of record high global temperatures. And it keeps 2016 on track to enter the record books as warmest year on record.
Gavin Schmidt, GISS director, pegs the odds of that happening at 99 percent:
— Gavin Schmidt (@ClimateOfGavin) June 14, 2016
Even if 2016 does break the record for warmest year, global temperatures could level off in 2017. More about that in a minute. But first…
With parts of Greenland experiencing record high temperatures of late, melting of snow and ice at the surface has been skyrocketing.
This follows a record low extent of Arctic sea ice in May, and other troublesome signs that global warming is taking off in the high north.
The satellite image above of Greenland’s southwest coast shows what’s happening at the surface: numerous blue melt ponds, and the telltale grayish-blue coloration indicative of melting snow and ice. (Make sure to click on the image for the full-size version.) Read More
I know what you’re probably thinking. Yulsman totally manipulated this sunset image in Photoshop. But actually, this is the JPG file straight out of the camera (a SONY A7R with a Zeiss zoom lens attached).
The camera’s JPG processing algorithm probably punched up the vibrance of the colors a little, and shifted the white balance a bit toward yellow. But quite honestly, this is close to what the sky looked like last night from my deck in Niwot, Colorado after a series of thunderstorms had rumbled through and the Sun dipped below the horizon.
I’m posting this image and the ones below not just because of the sheer spectacle of the sky catching fire, but also to highlight a marvelous meteorological phenomenon known as mammatus clouds.
These are rounded, pouch-like structures on the underside of clouds, typically thunderstorm clouds, known scientifically as cumulonimbus.
You can see the beginnings of mammatus pouches in the image above. But the light was so fiery bright during that stage of the sunset that it was difficult to discern them. Also, not many had formed just yet.
But as the sunset progressed, and the fires cooled a bit, more mammatus pouches formed, and they became more evident: Read More
Wildfire activity in Russia’s Far East has seen something of an upsurge this spring compared to the same period last year. One of the most dramatic of the fires has been burning along the west coast of Russia’s remote Kamchatka Peninsula.
Wildfire is no stranger to the peninsula, but this one has created a bit of a remote sensing spectacle. To see what I mean, check out the animation of satellite images above. Make sure to click on it to view a larger, higher quality version.
The peninsula can be seen at the right side of the animation. Watch for thick plumes of grayish smoke streaming west out into the Sea of Okhotsk.
A weak low pressure system draws some of the smoke into its vortex circulation. Beneath the smoke, low level stratus clouds also swirl in the weather system’s circulation pattern. Read More